The aggregate value of PE deals in Indian real estate rose in Q1 FY25, primarily driven by a single large investment in warehousing assets of Reliance Retail. ANAROCK Capital's FLUX report for Q1 FY25 finds that the sequential increase was an impressive 113%; however, the Y-o-Y increase was relatively modest at approx.14% - underscoring the inherent lumpiness in the reported transactions.
Shobhit Agarwal, MD & CEO – ANAROCK Capital, says, “The top private equity deal – for approx. USD 1.5 Bn between Reliance-ADIA-KKR – accounted for a whopping 71% of the total PE deals in Q1 FY25. In Q1 FY24, the top PE deal by Brookfield India RE Trust and GIC was approx. USD 1.4 Bn and accounted for a marginally higher 74% share of the total PE deals.”
Average Ticket Size The average deal size increased by 23% Y-o-Y, driven by the Reliance Retail warehousing deal.
Qtly Trends in Foreign Investments: 4-Q Moving Average On a moving average basis, activity by foreign investors was lower than levels witnessed previously, despite the current spike in deal value. This is due to an overall weak macro-economic environment, and elevated geo-political risks.
Movement of Capital Inflow Multi-city deals continued to steal the limelight during this quarter, driven by the Reliance-ADIA-KKR deal accounting for 71% of overall deals value in Q1 FY25. Besides this large deal, the current quarter also witnessed contributions from Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Pune and MMR.
Equity vs Debt Funding “Pure debt and pure equity transactions took a backseat during the quarter in light of the Reliance – ADIA – KKR transaction in the deal table,” says Aashiesh Agarwaal, SVP - Research & Investment, ANAROCK Capital. “According to available data, this transaction is a combination of senior debt, quasi-equity or subordinate debt, and equity infusion.”
Asset Class-wise Funding While transactions in Q1 FY24 witnessed a marked skew towards offices owing to the GIC-Brookfield deal, Q1 FY25 was significantly aligned towards logistics on account of the USD 1.5 Bn investment in warehousing assets of Reliance Retail by ADIA & KKR.
Foreign vs Domestic Funding: As in Q1 FY24, foreign investors continued to dominate the quarter and domestic investors operated on the sidelines.
Q1 FY25: Key Market Highlights
Residential
The quarter witnessed a softening of volumes compared to the previous quarter, largely due to elevated prices and the high base of previous quarter. However, volumes on a y-o-y basis were higher, indicating a robust overall trend. Mumbai and Pune continued to dominate sales with over 50% share of sales volumes. While overall volumes declined sequentially, but launches were higher. Most cities also witnessed increased pricing – with NCR reporting the highest quarterly jump of 10% in Q1FY25 and Hyderabad showing the highest yearly jump of 38% in average residential prices.
Commercial Office
Office leasing remained buoyant during the quarter, led by the Technology, BFSI and Manufacturing sectors.Leveraging a favourable ecosystem, Global Captive Centres (GCCs) have also emerged as a key occupier group contributing to a robust demand for Grade A office space. In terms of cities, Bengaluru continued its run as the preferred city for occupiers, followed by Mumbai which saw a significant increase in Y-o-Y leasing activity. Flex spaces continued to see robust take-up, reiterating occupier preferences for agility and flexibility.
Retail
Domestic consumption remained strong, resulting in robust footfalls and trading densities. Led by healthy demand dynamics, retailers are keen to expand their presence, driving up demand and asking rentals in key markets. However, store profitability at such elevated rentals is not inspiring retailer confidence, impacting conversions of retailer interest into demand for space in certain markets. There is a visible shift of consumption towards the affordable and premium retail; mid-market value retail seen to lag.
Industrial & Logistics
The Industrial & Logistics segment continues to hold promise for investors given strong growth prospects on the back of robust consumption and expectations of manufacturing-led growth.
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